As of early 2026, the World Bank upgraded its 2025 global growth estimate to 2.7%, reversing a previous June 2025 forecast of 2.3%.
- Despite this upward revision, the 2025 outlook indicates the global economy is in the midst of a slow growth period, significantly hampered by geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty.
Key 2025 Growth Projections & Context
- Revised Outlook: The January 2026 update raised the 2025 forecast from 2.3% to 2.7% due to surprising resilience in major economies despite higher tariff barriers.
- Weakest Decade: Despite the upward revision, the period surrounding 2025 is considered part of the slowest half-decade of growth in 30 years.
- Regional Variances: Emerging and developing economies are projected to see a broad-based slowdown, with growth in those regions slowing to 3.8% in 2025.
- Risks: The outlook remains heavily affected by increased trade policy uncertainty, policy disputes, and geopolitical tensions.
Earlier in June 2025, the Bank had severely cut its forecast to 2.3%, noting it would be the slowest rate of growth since 2008 outside of a recession. The January 2026 update shows a stronger-than-expected recovery of momentum